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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model