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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(7:36) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith scrambles right guard to NYG 26 for 6 yards (90-J.Pierre-Paul, 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model