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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 58 yards to NYG 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.50 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 62, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model