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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 62

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 9-B.Wing punts 57 yards to KC 5, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-22-W.Gallman.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.10 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 62, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model