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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 8

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-A.Rosas 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model