Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- MIA offense: -0.225 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- LV offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
- Jay Cutler (MIA): -0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIA starting Jay Cutler in place of Matt Moore)
- MIA on 3 more days rest than LV
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
OAK
MIA
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:35 FG LV (7:35) 2-G.Tavecchio 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – MIA 0
- Q2 10:47 TD MIA (10:47) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 26-D.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – MIA 6
- Q2 03:35 TD LV (3:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-J.Holton for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – MIA 6
- Q2 00:37 FG MIA (:37) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. OAK 10 – MIA 9
- Q2 00:01 FG LV (:01) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 13 – MIA 9
- Q3 09:38 TD LV (9:38) 24-M.Lynch up the middle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 19 – MIA 9
- Q3 06:41 TD MIA (6:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 14-J.Landry for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 20 – MIA 15
- Q4 04:42 TD LV (4:42) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 26 – MIA 16
- Q4 01:36 TD MIA (1:36) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right to 89-J.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 27 – MIA 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 14 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%
(7:35) 2-G.Tavecchio 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
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Q1 MIA 4th & 7 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:10) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to LV 28, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-78-T.Fede. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(1:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to MIA 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.
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Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 31Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 75%
(:37) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33%
(12:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 54 yards to LV 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-J.Richard to LV 33 for 13 yards (31-M.Thomas; 34-S.Perry).
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Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(5:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to MIA 18, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.
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Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(3:43) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to LV 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 8 yards (78-T.Fede).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%
(11:03) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 37 yards to LV 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.
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Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 89Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(9:43) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to MIA 40, Center-59-J.Condo. 19-J.Grant to MIA 45 for 5 yards (55-M.Lee).
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Q4 MIA 4th & 18 at the 63Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(7:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LV 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.
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Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 48 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EPp(convert) 21% p(FG) 34%
(2:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Parker.