Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 63

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Miami Dolphins 16

(5:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 45 yards to MIA 18, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.05 EP
57% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 63, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model