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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:37) 1-C.Parkey 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model