Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 63

Miami Dolphins 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(7:29) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 50 yards to LV 13, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.63 EP
77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 63, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model