Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:10) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 31 yards to LV 28, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-78-T.Fede. PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 28.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.97 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model