Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(12:59) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 54 yards to LV 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 30-J.Richard to LV 33 for 13 yards (31-M.Thomas; 34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model