4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Parker.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.12 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP