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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 46 yards to MIA 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.44 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 22, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model