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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 47

Miami Dolphins 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(11:03) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 37 yards to LV 10, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.05 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model