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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 16:05 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

SF
28.0%
ARI
72.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Brian Hoyer (SF): -0.096 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • SF on 4 more days rest than ARI
  • SF defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 18
–
ARI 25
Projected margin: ARI by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SF

Reuben Foster LB Out Ankle
Eric Reid S Out Knee
Brock Coyle LB Questionable Concussion
Carlos Hyde RB Questionable Hip
Kyle Juszczyk RB Questionable Concussion
Jaquiski Tartt S Questionable Concussion
Pita Taumoepenu DE Questionable Ankle

ARI

Alex Boone G Out Chest
Mike Iupati G Out Tricep
Robert Nkemdiche DT Out Calf
John Brown WR Questionable Quadricep
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Knee
J.J. Nelson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 15
–
ARI 18

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:11 FG SF (2:11) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – ARI 0
  • Q2 13:11 FG ARI (13:11) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SF 3 – ARI 3
  • Q2 07:21 FG SF (7:21) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 01:29 FG ARI (1:29) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SF 6 – ARI 6
  • Q3 10:39 FG SF (10:39) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 9 – ARI 6
  • Q3 06:55 FG ARI (6:55) 4-P.Dawson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SF 9 – ARI 9
  • Q3 02:27 FG SF (2:27) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 12 – ARI 9
  • Q4 07:46 FG ARI (7:46) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. SF 12 – ARI 12
  • Q5 02:28 FG SF (2:28) 9-R.Gould 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 15 – ARI 12
  • Q5 00:38 TD ARI (:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – ARI 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (7:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 28 for no gain (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:00) (Punt formation) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to SF 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 34 for 16 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on SF-47-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SF 34.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 61%

    (3:33) 2-B.Hoyer up the middle to ARI 35 for 3 yards (92-F.Rucker).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

    (2:11) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (13:11) 4-P.Dawson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (7:21) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 12 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 58%

    (2:40) 2-A.Lee punts 27 yards to SF 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 85%

    (1:29) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 15 for 7 yards (29-J.Tartt).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 74%

    (6:55) 4-P.Dawson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 78%

    (2:27) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:56) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to SF 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (7:46) 4-P.Dawson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to ARI 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 21-P.Peterson pushed ob at ARI 27 for 5 yards (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on SF-30-A.Jackson, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (4:25) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SF 10, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 17 for 7 yards (36-B.Baker). PENALTY on SF-82-L.Paulsen, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at SF 10.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 96 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:52) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 10 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to ARI 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 25 for 7 yards (30-A.Jackson). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at ARI 18.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:02) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to SF 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 43 for 15 yards (57-J.Bynes).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:20) 5-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.