Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 5-B.Pinion punts 50 yards to ARI 28, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams to ARI 28 for no gain (31-R.Mostert). PENALTY on ARI-80-I.Momah, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 78, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model