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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 9 – San Francisco 49ers 12

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 2-A.Lee punts 34 yards to SF 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.06 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model