Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 9

(13:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 36, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model