4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 32

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-P.Dawson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model