Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 88

Arizona Cardinals 12 – San Francisco 49ers 12

(1:02) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to SF 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-T.Taylor to SF 43 for 15 yards (57-J.Bynes).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.35 EP
57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model