Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 6

(:46) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to ARI 8, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-K.Williams pushed ob at ARI 15 for 7 yards (29-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.98 EP
70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model