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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model