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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 38

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 2-B.Hoyer up the middle to ARI 35 for 3 yards (92-F.Rucker).

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model