4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
64.7%
CHI
35.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Mike Glennon (CHI) -0.064 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.165 EPA/dropback
  • CHI offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
CHI 20
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Hamstring
T.J. Watt LB Out Groin
Stephon Tuitt DE Questionable Biceps
Jerald Hawkins T Questionable Knee

CHI

Nick Kwiatkoski LB Out Chest
Josh Sitton G Doubtful Ribs
Tom Compton T Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 17
–
CHI 23

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:13 TD CHI (9:13) 24-Jo.Howard left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 05:47 TD PIT (5:47) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:47 TD CHI (:47) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 87-A.Shaheen for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CHI 13
  • Q2 00:00 FG CHI (:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. PIT 7 – CHI 17
  • Q3 06:49 TD PIT (6:49) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CHI 17
  • Q4 08:07 FG PIT (8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – CHI 17
  • Q5 08:34 TD CHI (8:34) 24-Jo.Howard left tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – CHI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CHI 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-27-S.McManis at PIT 29. 27-S.McManis to PIT 29 for no gain (17-E.Rogers).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%

    (2:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.76 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CHI 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 62 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 23 for 15 yards (93-S.Acho).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 27 for no gain (30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 36%

    (10:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CHI 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 34 yards to PIT 38, Center-49-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (3:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CHI 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 47 for 28 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey; 85-X.Grimble). PENALTY on CHI-95-R.Robertson-Harris, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CHI 18.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 21%

    (1:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.