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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 80

Chicago Bears 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to PIT 27, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers to PIT 27 for no gain (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model