4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 39 yards to CHI 19, Center-57-K.Canaday. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 47 for 28 yards (88-D.Heyward-Bey; 85-X.Grimble). PENALTY on CHI-95-R.Robertson-Harris, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CHI 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 58, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model