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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CHI 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.39 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.76 EP