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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CHI 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model