4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP