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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model