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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 70

Chicago Bears 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 62 yards to PIT 8, Center-49-A.DePaola. 17-E.Rogers pushed ob at PIT 23 for 15 yards (93-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.58 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model