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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CHI 9, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP