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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 20:30 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

OAK
35.4%
WAS
64.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.180 vs Derek Carr (LV) +0.143 EPA/dropback
  • WAS defense: +0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 22
–
WAS 27
Projected margin: WAS by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

OAK

Sean Smith CB Questionable Neck

WAS

Mason Foster LB Questionable Shoulder
Rob Kelley RB Questionable Rib
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Shoulder
Josh Norman CB Questionable Shoulder
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 10
–
WAS 27

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:51 TD WAS (9:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 03:53 TD WAS (3:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 85-V.Davis for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-K.Mack]. OAK 0 – WAS 13
  • Q3 10:47 TD WAS (10:47) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 18-J.Doctson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – WAS 20
  • Q3 04:00 TD LV (4:00) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-J.Cook for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-26-B.Breeland, Defensive Holding, declined. OAK 6 – WAS 21
  • Q4 15:00 FG WAS (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. OAK 7 – WAS 24
  • Q4 11:57 FG LV (11:57) 2-G.Tavecchio 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – WAS 24
  • Q4 06:07 FG WAS (6:07) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. OAK 10 – WAS 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:47) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to WAS 25, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (5:44) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to LV 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 30-J.Richard to LV 17 for 6 yards (31-F.Moreau, 47-Q.Dunbar).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (4:20) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to WAS 20, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:09) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:55) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to WAS 17, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:09) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to LV 31, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 30-J.Richard to LV 29 for -2 yards (31-F.Moreau).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:52) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to WAS 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 15 for 5 yards (39-K.McGill).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 43%

    (:19) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to LV 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:36) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder to LV 41 for 18 yards (58-T.Adams, 49-J.Olawale).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 70%

    (7:03) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 25%

    (4:49) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to WAS 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LV-47-J.Cowser at WAS 18.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:18) 7-M.King punts 61 yards to WAS 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 31 for 13 yards (16-J.Holton). PENALTY on WAS-39-S.McClure, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 18.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (11:57) 2-G.Tavecchio 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (6:07) 3-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr scrambles left guard to LV 38 for 6 yards.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 11 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 61%

    (1:45) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to LV 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.