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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 74

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 7-M.King punts 54 yards to WAS 20, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.75 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 32, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP