Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 83

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 21

(8:36) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder to LV 41 for 18 yards (58-T.Adams, 49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model