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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 2-G.Tavecchio 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP