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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 38

Washington Commanders 27 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 5-T.Way punts 32 yards to LV 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP