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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 34

Washington Commanders 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:03) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP