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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 5

Washington Commanders 21 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.13 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP