Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 7-M.King punts 61 yards to WAS 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 31 for 13 yards (16-J.Holton). PENALTY on WAS-39-S.McClure, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.32 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model