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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 65

Washington Commanders 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to LV 22, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.36 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model