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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2017-09-24 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

HOU
15.0%
NE
85.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.218 vs Deshaun Watson (HOU) -0.409 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.175 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.168 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

HOU 18
–
NE 30
Projected margin: NE by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

HOU

Jeff Allen G Out Ankle
Kevin Johnson CB Out Knee
Will Fuller WR Out Shoulder
Alfred Blue RB Questionable Ankle
Brandon Dunn DT Questionable Knee

NE

Rex Burkhead RB Out Ribs
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Ankle
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Concussion
Phillip Dorsett WR Questionable Knee
Nate Ebner S Questionable Shoulder
Stephon Gilmore CB Questionable Groin
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Groin
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Knee
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Thumb
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
Matt Slater WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 33
–
NE 36

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:37 TD NE (10:37) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – NE 6
  • Q1 07:27 FG HOU (7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 3 – NE 7
  • Q1 01:57 TD HOU (1:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep middle to 12-B.Ellington for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 9 – NE 7
  • Q2 12:33 TD NE (12:33) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Hogan for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – NE 13
  • Q2 07:09 FG HOU (7:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 13 – NE 14
  • Q2 06:26 TD HOU (6:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 20 for -8 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-90-J.Clowney at NE 22. 90-J.Clowney for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 19 – NE 14
  • Q2 04:07 TD NE (4:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 15-C.Hogan for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 20 – NE 20
  • Q3 12:55 TD NE (12:55) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 14-B.Cooks for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 27th career game with 4+ TD passes, 3rd most all-time. HOU 20 – NE 27
  • Q3 07:16 TD HOU (7:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 84-R.Griffin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-T.Flowers]. HOU 26 – NE 28
  • Q4 12:17 FG HOU (12:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 30 – NE 28
  • Q4 02:28 FG HOU (2:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 33 – NE 28
  • Q4 00:29 TD NE (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 14-B.Cooks for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Clowney]. NE 12-Brady 6th career game with 5+ TD passes, ties Marino for 3rd most all-time. NE 12-Brady 6th career game with 5+ TD passes & no interceptions, 2nd-most all-time (Brees 7). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 33 – NE 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:45) 9-S.Lechler punts 65 yards to NE 16, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola to NE 49 for 33 yards (23-K.Drummond).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 21
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 89%

    (7:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:09) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to HOU 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 18 for 5 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 49-J.Cardona).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (4:38) 9-S.Lechler punts 68 yards to NE 6, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-22-J.Todman.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:41) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to NE 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (14:22) 6-R.Allen punts 26 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (7:09) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (1:13) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 80-D.Amendola ran ob at NE 30 for 20 yards.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 58%

    (1:49) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (12:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:42) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 13 for 6 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:27) 9-S.Lechler punts 52 yards to NE 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (6:05) 6-R.Allen punts 60 yards to HOU 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 33 for 9 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 55-C.Marsh).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 92%

    (2:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.