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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 18

Houston Texans 30 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 7-K.Fairbairn 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.01 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP