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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 28 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-R.Allen punts 59 yards to HOU 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 13 for 6 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.82 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP