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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 38

New England Patriots 28 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model