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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to HOU 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 18 for 5 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP