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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 92

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 6-R.Allen punts 36 yards to NE 44, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.13 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 50, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model