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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 37

New England Patriots 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 6-R.Allen punts 26 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.02 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT +0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model