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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 13

Houston Texans 27 – New England Patriots 28

What Actually Happened

(12:17) 7-K.Fairbairn 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model