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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 84

New England Patriots 28 – Houston Texans 30

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 6-R.Allen punts 60 yards to HOU 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 33 for 9 yards (29-J.Bademosi, 55-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.58 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP